the weather forecast is not reassuring

While several departments are still affected by drinking water restrictions due to drought, specialists are concerned to see this phenomenon gaining ground. Will we experience, once again, a stifling and dry summer? As a reminder, he did not fall a single drop of rain this winter and the year 2022 was the hottest ever measured in France since records began in 1900. What awaits us for the summer period of 2023?

“Heat feathers”, thunderstorms… worrying weather phenomena this summer

According to forecasts of The Weather Channelthe summer of 2023 could be, unsurprisingly, just as scorching as the previous one. “At the scale of the May-June-July quarter, the temperatures forecast in France could be above seasonal averages (based on the last 30 years) with a difference close to +1.5°C. This hot trend is forecast from May and could continue throughout the summer, a development that is seen quite unanimously by the seasonal numerical models. In this context, strong heat waves cannot be ruled out.we read in the press release.

Few rains and hot weather expected

“From June, and for the summer, our Météo Consult model envisages a stormy evolution, mainly from the southwest to the northeast, and over the Mediterranean hinterlands. The deficit would therefore be less marked than last summer, which was characterized by a severe drought. But the evolution for the next few months shows a still rather limited reliability with regard to precipitation.

June is coming hot with an anomaly probably close to +1.5°C. All of the seasonal numerical models are fairly consistent with this forecast. Precipitation could be quite close to normal, but in stormy form, so it would be quite heterogeneous. Some regions will be in deficit, in particular from the south-east to the Rhône valley and the Alsace plain. The stormy axis would be located mainly to the west and southwest, sometimes going up to the northeast, as well as in the mountainous hinterlands of the southeast.

On the other hand, the depressions positioned off Portugal, in addition to causing thunderstorms, are also likely to act as “heat pumps” and bring hot flashes back to our country. The threat of heat waves thus seems present again for this summer, but they would be interspersed with thunderstorms.

The configuration forecast for the month of July shows the persistence of northern high pressures. Conversely, relative low pressures will persist off Portugal, which could cause stormy upwellings as well as “heat plumes”. We foresee a hot month of July, with temperatures above the average for the season close to +1.5 to +2°C, while the rainfall would be punctuated by storms which could burst especially in the mountains, as well as on an axis going up from Midi-Pyrénées towards the northeast, with a fairly marked signal to date”.