Presentation of the 2023-2027 Stability Program
This Stability Program presents the growth forecasts and the public finance trajectory that the Government has set itself for 2027. This trajectory reflects the objective of returning to normalized public accounts once the health and energy crises have passed. : the public deficit should fall below the 3% of GDP threshold by 2027, thanks to a recovery in the structural balance of 1.3 points between 2023 and 2027 and the expected dynamics of activity. The public debt ratio should fall by 2027, with a strict decline year after year over the entire trajectory and at a marked pace from 2026.
Resilient to shocks at the end of 2022, the French economy should continue to grow in 2023 and accelerate in 2024.
As at the end of 2022, the French economy should continue to show its resilience in early 2023 in the face of the shocks caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Purchasing power support measures and the ebb of inflationary pressures should then enable the economy to gradually accelerate from the second half of 2023 and throughout 2024. In this context, the Government will gradually transform the support measures into more targeted aid while preparing for the future through structural reforms to support long-term activity and achieve full employment.
Growth in activity should stand at +1.0% in 2023 to become more buoyant in 2024 at +1.6%.
Measures in favor of the purchasing power of the French and the competitiveness of companies will be implemented, while guaranteeing the sustainability of our public finances and the reduction of France’s debt.
Growth would thus be higher than its potential rate until 2027, also benefiting from catch-up margins after the two successive shocks of covid and the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its consequences. The normalization of inflation would be completed in 2026, with a return to the ECB’s inflation target.
The improvement in the public balance will be made possible by controlling the increase in public expenditure in all its spheres (+0.6% in volume excluding emergency and recovery on average over the period 2023-2027). This mastery is based on the one hand on structural reforms, such as the pension reform promulgated on April 15 and the unemployment insurance reform. It is also based on an annual expenditure review mechanism provided for in the initial finance law for 2023.
