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BLOGIMPOTS ET FISCALITE

France economic flash – Banque de France surveys indicate good performance in the construction and services sectors

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• The Banque de France measures generally buoyant activity in August in its business surveyswho inform his point of conjuncture from September 12. Indeed, if activity declines slightly in industry, it improves in services and in construction. Also, the production postponements which took place in August and which penalized activity in the industry should take place in September. Thus, the Banque de France expects growth of between +0.1% and +0.2% in Q3 2023 (see focus below).

• THE building and public works index experienced divergent developments in July according to INSEE. Indeed, if the building index fell by −0.5% in monthly variation, that of public works increased by +0.2% in monthly variation.

inflation is on the rise in August according to INSEE. Indeed, year-on-year, inflation reached +4.9% in August after +4.3% in July (see focus below).

• New forecasts have been published for France: the European Commission anticipates activity growth of +1.0% in 2023 and +1.2% in 2024; the averages of Consensus Forecasts lead to growth of +0.0% on 3e quarter and +0.1% in Q4, bringing growth to +0.8% in 2023.

• The Markemétron new houses indicator decreased again in July (−1.1% monthly variation, cvs-cjo data).

Focus on sectoral business climates

In August 2023, according to the Banque de France, activity increased in the construction and services sectors but fell very slightly in industry. In detail, activity in the building (for which the synthetic indicator gained 2 pts to 104) is driven by both the structural work and the finishing work. For services (+0 pts to 99), although good performances are achieved in personal services or even IT services, activity is contracting in automobile repair and in accommodation and catering. Finally in industry (+0 pt to 92), the only sector in slight decline this month, activity is penalized by the prolonged summer closures in certain sectors and should therefore start to rise again in September, benefiting from the postponement of this delayed production. In this context of improvement, the Banque de France expects growth in activity of between +0.1% and +0.2% in quarterly variation as of 3e quarter.

Sectoral business climates Banque de France

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