Ethereum A sham bullish trend?

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Analysis published on Wednesday, May 3, 2023

The favorable conjunction between the simultaneous declines of the dollar, bond rates and inflation is not unrelated to the renewed form of the price of Ethereum. Especially since a good number of investors would begin to believe that the FED could put an end to its monetary tightening before the end of the year. However, we do not see a noticeable clean-up of the cryptocurrency industry. That’s why we would suspect that the current uptrend is misleading. And perhaps we fear a nasty surprise over the next few months, if we rely on a EUR/USD pair which struggles permanently beyond 1.10.

For now, Ethereum’s year-to-date rebound remains intact, as long as the ascending line drawn from $1000 is not broken. But at the same time, the MACD would begin to decline on pain of a bearish crossover. Suppose this unfavorable signal is confirmed, the failure below $2000 could be detrimental. Not only that, the uptrend could be neutralized. Then the bulls would show even more signs of feverishness.

In the event of a deterioration accompanied by a significant drop in risk appetite, the joint break of the ascending line and $1700 would cause prices to fall towards $1400. With the passage, a MACD and an RSI which would plausibly pass below their respective waterlines. Below $1400, the trend would reverse in favor of the bears.

Conversely, it would be necessary to preserve $1700 or quickly go back above $2000 for the bulls to keep control. But this would remain conditioned by hopes of a FED which would once again open the floodgates of liquidity in the system. But given the level of inflation, it would not be certain that the end of monetary tightening would translate into rate cuts this year. This would potentially be a brake on the rebound of Ethereum (cryptocurrencies in the broad sense) in view of a new bull market.


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