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Economic flash France – Rise in registrations in July and decline in manufacturing production in June

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  • S&P confirms the drop in composite PMI index July for France in its final estimate (−0.6 pt to 46.6, unrevised), a sign of economic activity, admittedly sluggish, but which has not yet reached the turning point.
  • At 2e quarter 2023, private salaried employment slowed down, but continued to progress with +19,700 net job creations (+0.1%), slowing down after +86,800 jobs created in the previous quarter (+0.4%) according to the INSEE flash estimate . This is the tenth consecutive quarter of growth in private salaried employment. It thus exceeds its level of a year ago (+1.2%) and its pre-crisis level (+6.2% compared to the end of 2019) which was then at its highest for 10 years.
Focus on manufacturing production

In June, industrial production index (IPI) in manufacturing industry fell back (−1.0% in monthly variation after +1.2%) but, given its volatility, does not overshadow the generally favorable diagnosis at this stage. In June, the decline in “other industries” explains half of the contraction in the IPI (−0.9% after +0.8%), and more particularly that of wood-paper (−4.0% after + 2.1%) and rubber-plastic (−3.6% after +1.8%). Without calling into question at this stage the diagnosis of a stabilization or even improvement in the production conditions of the energy-intensive sectors, this reversal in June deserves particular attention. Moreover, a tenth of the drop in the IPI also stems from the decline in the automotive sector (−1.9% after +6.2%). Despite this decline, the automotive sector has been on an upward trend since 2e quarter of 2022, benefiting from a catch-up dynamic after having been heavily penalized by the Covid-19 crisis and the supply difficulties it caused.

Sectoral IPI deviation from the 2019 average


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