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BLOGIMPOTS ET FISCALITE

Economic flash France – Increase in the IPI in July

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• In July, the industrial production index (IPI) in the manufacturing sector is progressing according to INSEE (+0.7% after −1.1%). It is almost entirely supported by the “other industries” sector (see focus below).

In August, registrations of new passenger cars continue their progress started in July (+6.6% in monthly variation after +10.9% in July); they increased by +17.4% year-on-year.

• S&P confirms the decline in the composite PMI index for France in its final estimate (−0.6 pt to 46.0, revised from 0.1pt).

• In July, the trade deficit in goods deteriorates (−€8.1 billion after −€6.8 billion) according to Customs, due to an increase in imports (+3.1% after −3.4%) greater than that of exports (+1. 0% after −1.4%). The increase in imports was mainly supported by that of energy products, mainly hydrocarbons (+25.1% after −7.8%) and coking-refining products (+30.5% after −17.1% ).

• At 2e quarter 2023, private salaried employment slows down, but continues to progress with +21,000 net job creations (+0.1%), slowing down after +101,800 jobs created in the previous quarter (+0.4%) according to the INSEE flash estimate . This is the tenth consecutive quarter of increase in private salaried employment. It thus exceeds its level of a year ago (+1.0%) and its pre-crisis level (+5.0% compared to the end of 2019) which was then at its highest in 10 years.

In July 2023, industrial production index (IPI) in the manufacturing industry is progressing (+0.7% after −1.1%). The increase in “other industries” explains almost the entire increase in the index (+1.3% after −1.0%). This sector has been oscillating without changing since the start of the year. It benefits from good growth in pharmacy (+2.6% after +3.3%), a sector evolving significantly above its pre-Covid crisis level. We will also note the progression of several energy-intensive sectors including wood-paper (+4.2% after −4.3%) and rubber-plastic (+0.9% after −3.8%), supporting the diagnosis of a stabilization or even improvement of production conditions in these sectors. Production also increases in metallurgy (+1.2% after −1.7%). Finally, we note that coking-refining fell back again in July (−3.4% after −0.5%) and seems to have difficulty returning to its pre-strike trend.

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